Whiplash Effect as “Pissed Off” Trump Flips Again

SIMPLICIUS

APR 2

 Trump seesawed again with an alleged rant to NBC about “pissed off” he was at Putin for not hopping to the US’ undercooked ceasefire offers. 

Many commentators pointed to Trump’s increasingly manic flip-flopping, citing how his claims of being ‘pissed’ at Putin for “unproductively” calling Zelensky illegitimate clashes with his own previous assessment of the Ukrainian head as ‘dictator’: 

“If Russia and I are unable to make a deal on stopping the bloodshed in Ukraine, and if I think it was Russia’s fault — which it might not be — but if I think it was Russia’s fault, I am going to put secondary tariffs on oil, on all oil coming out of Russia,” Trump said in an early-morning phone call with NBC News on Sunday.

“That would be that if you buy oil from Russia, you can’t do business in the United States,” Trump said. “There will be a 25% tariff on all oil, a 25- to 50-point tariff on all oil.”

The problem for Trump seems two-fold: 

On one hand he appears to be legitimately frustrated by his inability to end the war rapidly due to internal pressures pushing him toward facing the emergent Iranian threat, as well as the long-overdue grand pivot to China.

This was particularly highlighted by a recent ‘secret Pentagon’ memo which outlines dumping European problems on Europe while refocusing US military assets on China’s purportedly upcoming ‘seizure of Taiwan’. 

The important thesis statement: 

But Hegseth’s guidance is extraordinary in its description of the potential invasion of Taiwan as the exclusive animating scenario that must be prioritized over other potential dangers — reorienting the vast U.S. military architecture toward the Indo-Pacific region beyond its homeland defense mission.

Those poor Europeans will be left to their own devices: 

“China is the Department’s sole pacing threat, and denial of a Chinese fait accompli seizure of Taiwan — while simultaneously defending the U.S. homeland is the Department’s sole pacing scenario,” Hegseth wrote. Its force planning construct — a concept of how the Pentagon will build and resource the armed services to take on perceived threats — will only consider conflict with Beijing when planning contingencies for a major power war, it says, leaving the threat from Moscow largely attended by European allies.

In short, the US and Trump want to have their cake and eat it too: they want to be strong enough to dominate China, while also swiftly sewing up the ‘pesky little’ Russian invasion, and keeping from various subsequent geopolitical exigencies from precipitating on the European continent. Who wouldn’t want that? The power to dominate the entire globe, and dictate its affairs. But Trump and his administration are living in another time and place, walking across fiery coals in boots whose rubber soles have long worn out. 

Newsflash: Russian conquest of Ukraine has far greater geopolitical consequences than a Chinese seizure of Taiwan, but American planners wouldn’t know that because at this point they’re owned by the industrial and tech tycoons that have hyper-focused on TSMC. In the grand scheme of things, Taiwan will be irrelevant in the not-too-distant future, but if you follow the rabbit-hole of the types of geopolitical realities Russia’s resurgence in Ukraine will open up, there is simply no comparison—if for no better reason than the fact US officials have already long promised that TSMC would be destroyed should China ever come close to seizing it, with parallel lines already being opened up in Arizona. But what Russia stands to gain in Ukraine, cannot be “sabotaged” in the same way. China will end up with a useless rock with crumbling infrastructure and 20 million people—hardly a drop in the ocean of China’s 1.5 billion. 

But getting back to Trump—the second thing needing mention is that his ‘lashing out’ against Russia could have an element of theater to it. He cannot be perceived as being too pro-Russian, and presumably must portray a “tough stance” against Putin to keep up appearances, so accusations of ‘unfairness’ or bias against Ukraine don’t grow too loud. Is there some truth to this? 

Part of the reason, it seems, Trump has expressed his frustration is that the pleasantries phase has run out, and Russia is now openly expressing that current ‘ceasefire’ offers are simply insufficient, as just stated by Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov: 

MOSCOW, April 1 (Reuters) - Russia cannot accept U.S. proposals to end the war in Ukraine in their current form because they do not address problems Moscow regards as having caused the conflict, a senior Russian diplomat said, suggesting U.S.-Russia talks on the subject had stalled.

The comments by Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov suggest Moscow and Washington have so far been unable to bridge differences which President Vladimir Putin raised more than two weeks ago when he said U.S. proposals needed reworking.

In fact, in his longer statement Ryabkov echoed precisely what I’ve been saying for weeks: that the US seeks a ceasefire first, and only then do the real work of negotiations and issues. This stems from Trump’s impatience to notch points on the scoreboard and declare a quick PR victory, at least at this leg of the process. But Russia is more thorough than that, and requires things to go methodically and systematically. To Russia, this is an existential issue, not a political stunt or quick PR fix. 

Trump is now threatening ‘aggressive action’ in the form of powerful tariffs that are set to hurt allies more than Russia: 

The United States is considering the possibility of introducing “aggressive sanctions” against ships transporting Russian oil, Fox News claims.

It is noted that Washington assesses the effectiveness of the current anti-Russian sanctions at “level 3 out of 10”. It is specified that among the new possible measures, the United States may attempt to ban the passage of ships transporting Russian oil through the Baltic Sea.

Read the last part carefully: Trump may attempt to bar any ships transporting Russian oil from the Baltic Sea, which mimics what Germany just did last week when it seized the Panama-flagged ‘Eventin’ oil tanker, reportedly carrying Russian ‘shadow’ fleet oil.

This is something to watch, given that the Empire is tightening the noose on Russia through the Baltics, increasingly provoking Russia to self-fulfill their prophecy of ‘Russian invasion’ or ‘aggression’. 

Germany officially launched its first permanent foreign troop deployment since World War II on Tuesday — a 5,000-strong armored brigade in Lithuania — as Berlin moves to bolster NATO’s eastern flank in response to Russia’s war against Ukraine.

According to the German military’s lobbying group, the newly created 45th Armored Brigade was formally activated during a ceremony outside Vilnius. A temporary headquarters was established, with the brigade’s crest unveiled and the unit now officially under the command of Brigadier General Christoph Huber.

 “We have a clear mission: to ensure the protection, freedom and security of our Lithuanian allies on NATO’s eastern flank,” Huber told dpa, the German press agency. “In doing so, we also protect NATO territory — and Germany itself.”

From a Russian channel: 

A repeat of the Ukraine scenario, anyone? 

Recall that just last week, American troops were putting around in their tanks a mere 7 miles from the Belarusian border, before being drowned in a swamp: 

And that itself came a week after Prince William valiantly paraded about in a British Challenger tank “in Putin’s backyard”, miles from Russia’s border during Estonian exercises. 

The ultimate irony of all this? The Atlanticist stooges claim to be taking precautions against Russian ‘aggression’ which is “right on” their own doorstep, yet Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur stated last week that ending the Ukrainian war is dangerous because it would allow Russia to redeploy “300,000 troops” to the northwest Baltics border: 

So, Russia currently doesn’t have troops on the border, and it’s actually NATO agitating against Russia? The self-evident lie is exposed again, and NATO is outed as the perpetual aggressor. 

Alas, the war drums beat on: 

Getting back to the issue of the shadow fleet, a new graphic from S&P Global claims to confirm previous estimates that the Russian oil tanker shadow fleet dwarfs the world over: 

According to new data from S&P Global, Russia now controls a shadow fleet of 586 oil tankers—more than five times the combined size of Iran and Venezuela’s covert fleets.

This fleet quietly transports around 3.5 million barrels of oil per day, dwarfing the volumes moved by other sanctioned nations. 

Despite Western sanctions, Moscow has not only sustained but expanded its oil exports. How? A vast web of opaque shipping arrangements, including offshore transshipments in neutral waters. Key buyers: India and China. These two Asian giants continue to soak up Russian crude, neutralizing the intended impact of U.S. and EU sanctions. This is a massive logistical and geopolitical success—one that has redrawn global energy flows in just two years. The sanctions didn’t stop the oil. They just changed the route.

An underrated comment to contextualize Atlanticist propaganda: 

So, Russia is operating nearly 600 tankers, and perhaps even many more unaccounted for, as I’ve previously reported estimates of closer to 1,000. Seizing a few here and there will surely not put a dime-sized dent in the operation. 

Another important point:

Recently I wrote about the contradiction coming from NATO about Russia both desperate for a ‘breather’ while at simultaneously pushing to expand the conflict into Europe. Now, several NATO characters have coordinated a humorous campaign to force Russia into a ceasefire, which exposes their own desperate need for a pause in order to inject European troops onto the DMZ. 

Note the demanding language, Russia must immediately stop delaying and enter into a ceasefire—why would Russia need such heavy persuasion if it was struggling in the war as they claim?

Note how it’s always some form of coordinated messaging with them—i.e. a script:

“We need Putin to accept an unconditional ceasefire NOW…”

Which side sounds the more desperate to you?

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A final tangential note: 

Trump continues bleating about how the gut-wrenching war deaths are the primary reason for his wanting to end the conflict in Ukraine—oh, bleat on, my bleeding heart!

This is a bald-faced fraud. 

If Trump cared anything about actual deaths on principle, he’d be saying the same things to Israel and Netanyahu, rather than arming and enabling them to commit a holocaust against the Palestinians. The double standards make it clear that the ‘fruitless deaths’ are certainly not the drivers behind Trump’s rabid mission to end the war—he’s fine with ritual slaughter as long as it serves favorable geopolitical needs. 

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What remains now: The battlefield is entering rasputitsa, and as we approach the cusp of prime maneuver time, both sides are claimed to be in the thralls of preparations.

Note the interesting admission from the above article: 

“The Russians were significantly exhausted over the past two months. During 10 days of March, they took a sort of pause,” military spokesman Maj. Viktor Trehubov said of the situation in Pokrovsk. In mid-March, the attack resumed. “This means the Russians have simply recovered.”

The ‘significant exhaustion’ of the Russians was cured in a mere 10 days. They have “simply recovered”. How do you ‘simply recover’ from ‘significant exhaustion’? In fact, the above statement provides a primer on pro-Ukrainian propaganda against Russia: whatever they say, whatever descriptions of the Russian Army they ferry out, it is always to be taken with a heaping of salt, as it’s virtually always mired in exaggeration.

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Some last items: 

Two new records from Russian strike statistics: 

New UAV record: Russia launched 4,198 drones at Ukrainian Armed Forces facilities in Ukraine in March

- Infographics: This month there was not a single night without attacks – the strikes continued for all 31 days. Russia has changed tactics, now squadrons are deliberately hitting one city. The number of UAVs has increased almost 10 times compared to last year.

It includes the following note on Russia’s change of tactics: 

Bild reports on the new tactics of Russian “Geranium-2” drones during strikes on Ukraine. 

These drones, known as “Geraniums,” assemble a few kilometers from the target at 1 km altitude, gathering in groups ranging from a few to dozens. They then attack simultaneously with minimal time gaps. Previously, “Geraniums” attacked individually, often minutes apart, allowing enemy air defenses to shoot them down one by one and reload. This swarm tactic has been used for some time, but the enemy conceals their awareness, and our side remains silent for secrecy reasons.

This coincides with a record first quarter of 2025 in the area of Fab bomb deliveries:

Ukrainian post: 

In just 3 months, Russians dropped more than 10,000 guided air bombs on Ukraine.

In total, in the first three months of 2025, Russia’s tactical aviation dropped 10,577 guided aerial bombs on the territory of Ukraine. This was reported on the website of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine: 

“Enemy aircraft strikes on Ukrainian settlements and positions of the Defense Forces do not stop. In March, Russian aviation increased the use of guided aerial bombs – about 4,800 (in February – 3,370).” 

Ed: this comes out to about 120 bombs per day on average. If these bombs generate even a single KIA on average it would represent 120 KIA per day not counting artillery, drones, small arms, and everything in between.

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Russia has increasingly been using another new tactic when it comes to FPVs, particularly of the optical fiber kind. 

The drones sit and wait on the Ukrainian supply routes, conserving their batteries until a logistics vehicle is detected. They then take off and eliminate it—here’s a montage of such strikes from just the past few days: 

Granted, the AFU itself pioneered this ‘trick’ long ago, but Russia is now widely using it to great advantage. One of the reasons it’s so deadly is because normally drones are heard coming from a long way’s away, giving the target time to make evasive maneuvers or run for cover, spreading out, etc. But this ‘bird of pray’ still predation leverages a huge element of surprise, which gives targets mere seconds to react. 

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The Russian T-90M sporting the newer Arena-M APS (Active Protection System) hard-kill defense has been spotted on testing grounds: 

A new video was released by Rostec showing a new test of the Arena-M system in action. What makes it special is experts have identified that the projectile being destroyed in the footage is infact a captured American Javelin, which, if true, means the long-held question of whether Russian APSs will evolve to be able to handle Javelins and the like has finally been answered: 

The reason it was debated is because it was an open question whether APS systems could handle “top attack” weapons like the Javelin, rather than frontal old-style RPGs, which is what they were originally designed to stop.