CND Press Roundup Wednesday 29th June 2022

War In Ukraine / NATO

• Finland and Sweden are on course to have their request to join NATO formally approved, after Turkey lifted its veto on the Nordic nations joining the military bloc. Ankara had initially voiced its opposition to their ascension over what it saw as support for Kurdish militants and Erdogan opponents living outside Turkey. However, a series of security arrangements agreed between the three parties on the sidelines of the NATO summit in Madrid has now paved the way for membership. The summit is also likely to see the bloc adopt a broad strategy against Russia over its war in Ukraine, as well as a pivot towards China in the Asia-Pacific.

• Police in Belgium have arrested two suspects after a raid on an ecstasy drug lab located on a NATO air base where US nuclear weapons are stored. A spokesperson for the Limburg prosecutor’s office said the two arrests at the Kleine-Brogel base were not military personnel. AFP notes that the base is located in a “rural area between the port city of Antwerp and the border with Germany’s industrial heartland, an area dotted by labs and hideouts used by international drug gangs.”

• Kim Darroch – Britain’s former ambassador to Washington – has a piece in The Telegraph calling for NATO to remain steadfast in its support of Ukraine against Russia but to be prepared for a nuclear strike from the Kremlin: “Thirdly, NATO must prepare itself and its citizens for every possible consequence of remaining resolute – in particular, the use of nuclear weapons. As sanctions take their toll and if his military ambitions are thwarted, Putin will feel increasingly cornered; with his personal survival resting on turning the tide of the conflict. As CIA director William Burns has warned, the Russian president may decide that his only remaining option is the nuclear one – possibly tactical nuclear weapons to break through Ukrainian defensive lines in the Donbas. Russian nuclear doctrine allows for this. There have been reports of the country’s nuclear forces conducting exercises in Ivanovo Province, north-east of Moscow. And Putin has placed his nuclear forces on high alert, threatening to use ‘the tools no one can boast of.’”

• The Mirror picks up on the latest round of statements from Russian state-media that hints at a nuclear threat.

• Lauren Sukin writes for the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists on how the Russia-Ukraine war has “blown up the global nuclear order.” She notes: “While some have argued that any nuclear use from Russia would likely be limited to a single demonstration—such as a high-altitude test, which would be intended not to cause any direct casualties—others have predicted more dire forms of possible Russian nuclear use. For example, Siegfried Hecker, a former director of the Los Alamos National Laboratory, says that ‘if Putin is going to use a nuclear weapon, he’s going to use it. He’s not going to do a demonstration.’ After all, Russia has little need to demonstrate its nuclear capabilities; the extent of its resources is well known. A nuclear demonstration could even be counterproductive, showing that Russia is unwilling to use nuclear weapons tactically and thereby undermining nuclear deterrence.”

• The Bulletin also previews the likely discussions at this week’s NATO summit – and how the bloc will re-orientate its approach to deterring chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear attacks in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: “A particular question is whether NATO nuclear policy will undergo any changes under the current circumstances, when Vladimir Putin and other senior Russian leaders have been rattling the nuclear saber. They were doing so even before the invasion of Ukraine, so allies must consider whether nuclear weapons use is now more likely. If this extraordinarily dangerous circumstance is arising, what must NATO members do to deter it?”

AUKUS

• Australia’s new Defence Minister has downplayed the acquisition timeline of new submarines – saying it was unlikely that any would be delivered by 2030. Under the AUKUS pact with the UK and US, nuclear-powered submarines would start delivery in 2040. However, its current fleet of Collins-class diesel subs are expected to be obsolete by 2035 – when China is expected to have technology capable of detecting the subs while on the surface. “I think that is optimistic in the extreme,” Richard Marles said on the possibility of having a nuclear-powered submarine before 2030. “We will be looking at every option available to try and bring that time forward.”

• Meanwhile, Australia’s Foreign Minister Penny Wong has insisted the AUKUS pact will not lead to the country acquiring nuclear weapons. Speaking at an event with her Malaysian counterpart, Wong said nuclear technology would be solely used for propulsion: “We remain very clear that we do not seek, nor would we ever seek to arm, (to) have any nuclear capability on our submarines…I think sometimes people hear the word nuclear, and I understand there’s a response to that, (but) we are talking about nuclear propulsion, not nuclear weapons.”

UK Defence Deal

• US industrial conglomerate Parker Hannifin has announced it is set to takeover UK defence firm Meggitt – in a £6.3 billion deal that could be completed within months. Coventry-based Meggitt makes wheels, materials, and electronics for the F-35 nuclear-capable fighter plane and the A400M transport plane and employs 2,300 people in Britain alone. A UK government spokesperson said the Business Secretary was “minded to accept undertakings offered by Parker Hannifin to address the concerns” it had on national security and competition grounds. It’s the second such takeover deal of a British defence firm by a US company to be given the green light by the government in a week -following the announcement that US private equity firm Advent International will buy Ultra Electronics for £2.6 billion.

UK Nuclear Energy

• Nuclear Free Local Authorities has congratulated Radiation Free Lakeland as their online petition against an offshore toxic waste dump reaches over 30,000 signatures.

Israel

• The Guardian reports on the use of fitness-tracking app Strava by unknown operatives, to spy on members of the Israeli military while they exercise on military bases, including one believed to be attached to the country’s nuclear programme. The app tracks the runs, cycles, and other physical activities of users by using GPS. Strava also allows users to define and compete over “segments” – short sections of a route that may be regularly raced over, like a long uphill climb on a popular cycling route or a single circuit of a park. It’s believed the operatives created a series of fake segments across Israeli military installations and were then able to keep tabs on personnel who were using the app while exercising on the bases.

Nuclear Energy

• Swedish power firm Vattenfall is considering the construction of two new mini-nuclear reactors as the country pivots back towards nuclear power to supply its energy needs.

Fukushima

• British consumers will be able to purchase foods produced in Fukushima from today, after a ban on foodstuffs imported from the area surrounding the site of the 2011 nuclear disaster is lifted. Boris Johnson said the remaining restrictions on Fukushima foodstuff would be lifted after a meeting with his Japanese counterpart Fumio Kishida on the sidelines of the G7 summit.  

• Japan has given the go ahead for 10 nuclear reactors at six power stations to begin operating. However, only four are currently in operation amid delays due to the time required to implement safety measures and necessary construction work. 21 reactors were mothballed following the 2011 Fukushima meltdown. However, a steep rise in oil and gas prices has led to the Japanese government to pivot back towards nuclear energy in order to prevent rolling blackouts in cities like Tokyo.